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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@aedwardslevy I think I said it before, but this is a great point. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@kyletblaine Did Fire Island in high school... I'm over it. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@kyletblaine Sry, I already signed up. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@aedwardslevy iirc and I may not, I think it was about enthusiasm in 2012. Maybe it was both? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
For the most part, the Q-Pac poll looks the same internally... Biden dominating in the mod/con lane. Warren ahead in the very lib lane... but a lane that just isn't that big and one she isn't dominating. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel Could be... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
These numbers for de Blasio are about the worst I've see for a non-scandal'd politician. I mean these can't be right... Can they? https://t.co/JHYUZALQ2Y https://t.co/u4d0He4I0q — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
A lot of goodies in here... Biden is down 3pts (within the MoE) of the last Q-Pac poll. 35-16-13 (Biden-Sanders-War… https://t.co/SGqgZKSriq — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@aedwardslevy Great stat. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Nominate Biden or don't (I think most Dems nominated would beat Trump if his approval stays steady), but John Kerry gets a bad wrap. He beat the economic fundamentals in 04. If anything, Obama underperformed those in 2008. https://t.co/S3ErdgJD0z — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This looks similar to other polling I've seen on black women. Biden winning about 50%+ among this group... — PolitiTweet.org
Steve Kornacki @SteveKornacki
Breakdown by race/gender in new Morning Consult Dem WH poll: https://t.co/D44pzccZ0B
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@databyler I've done zero math as well. Interested in thoughts... Dems won the median seat by what? 3? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NateSilver538 Nathaniel ;). — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NateSilver538 You talking about chicken corner? 23rd and 8th. Popeyes, Boston Market, and Dallas BBQ all in that square. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@D_Summerville As you should. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
That moment you meet someone and find out they went to Duke... https://t.co/65xEaNPU2p — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NateSilver538 https://t.co/bJWu4OyiT1 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
https://t.co/frnm6GQHMA https://t.co/smCrThpwb4 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
N E What in the actual hell? Y O R K M E T S https://t.co/QOfm6P7ccF
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Finally, OMG polls are not perfect. Stop treating them like something carried by Moses. They are tools. Seems to me the Australian polls pointed to a tight finish overall... and that's what occurred. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
A few more points: Australia has compulsory voting, which cuts down on the likely voter problem compared to the states. Still, your listed margin of error ain't gonna help you if you have non-response bias. That's why I prefer looking at historic error rates. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
A 2nd key thing that happened was that polling in more recent elections has generally been really right on... But 32 years ago, there was about a 7 point error. It's really impt to take a longer view picture on this stuff. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I have spoken about how people tend to concentrate on winners instead of margins for polling misses. That's always a bad idea. A 2 point lead could easily be a 6 pt win or just the same a 2 point loss. 4/? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Of course average errors tend to oversell confidence, if we were computing a 95% CI, it'd be considerably wider... So then why all this outcry of the polls being off in Australia... A few fold. 1. the 2 party preferred polling picked the wrong "winner". 3/? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
If you go back since 1943(!), the average error in the final week of polling between the top two parties in the first round has been about 5 points. The average was off by 5 this year https://t.co/n3BIUEd0wd — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
So I don't know much about Australian politics, but I do know something about downloading spreadsheets of past poll data and calculating error rates... https://t.co/Q2BEjmH3pq — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Gonna be okay, folks... https://t.co/Huf4ki8j1s — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@PatrickRuffini https://t.co/QqVrYOk1eo Fun times at the office! — PolitiTweet.org
Kristen Soltis Anderson @KSoltisAnderson
That was everything. That was perfect. What a journey.
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I remember Steve Kroft on West 57th. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
i think the last series finale I watched live was... Seinfeld 21 years ago. Besides that, the only one I remember was Full House 24 years ago. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Nothing like baked ziti, bed, and Laverne & Shirley on a Saturday Night... — PolitiTweet.org
