(((Harry Enten)))

@ForecasterEnten ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 24, 2020

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Mon May 20 19:08:27 +0000 2019

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I have spoken about how people tend to concentrate on winners instead of margins for polling misses. That's always a bad idea. A 2 point lead could easily be a 6 pt win or just the same a 2 point loss. 4/? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 20, 2019 Hibernated

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Of course average errors tend to oversell confidence, if we were computing a 95% CI, it'd be considerably wider... So then why all this outcry of the polls being off in Australia... A few fold. 1. the 2 party preferred polling picked the wrong "winner". 3/? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 20, 2019 Hibernated

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

A 2nd key thing that happened was that polling in more recent elections has generally been really right on... But 32 years ago, there was about a 7 point error. It's really impt to take a longer view picture on this stuff. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 20, 2019 Hibernated