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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@SeanTrende THINKS? Better be "IS" — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@RalstonReports Hair? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@richardmskinner Yes. lol. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@islivingston MORE OF ALL OF THIS CONTENT. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Once the media turns to Biden... It can turn the election into a choice... A choice Biden may win... but is much more uncertain... As we saw with Clinton in 16 when the media attention turned to her in the final weeks of 2016... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Folks seem to confuse the media domination that Trump got in the 2016 primary (which was very good for his campaign) and the media in general elections (very bad). If you got an unpopular incumbent, more media on him isn't going to help his cause... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Biden's getting beat by Trump in media mentions by a ~9:1 margin over last month, & Biden's winning. (Clinton was getting beat 2:1 at this point.) Lesson from 2020 so far & 2016: Dem's pathway to win is to give Trump the media spotlight & stand back https://t.co/oDYwVgFhsb — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@Nate_Cohn Well we knew that. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
You saw this really well in the Fox News state polls where Trump seemed to really be undershooting his net approval... His deficits to Biden were well aligned with his negative net favorable ratings. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
In recent live interview polls, there's been a small but clear gap between Trump's approval & favorable rating w/ Trump's fav rating trailing... suggesting a likability deficit. Since 80, incumbent fav ratings seem to correlate better w/ election outcomes https://t.co/lJctarmnVc — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
FWIW, I agree with this. — PolitiTweet.org
Bill Scher @billscher
Kamala Harris feels like the Joe Biden of the VP race. A little too obvious, imperfect on the campaign trail, veeri… https://t.co/1gyM9ok7j2
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Could have been far worse for Trump... Would like to see some probability polling from TX. — PolitiTweet.org
Patrick Svitek @PatrickSvitek
Biden trails Trump by 5 points in Texas, per new UT/@TexasTribune poll: https://t.co/HM2gJry7eS
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@Nate_Cohn You saying we shouldn't rely on Q2 estimates only? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
All things strike me as true... 1. Trump's numbers are poor for an incumbent. 2. Plenty of time to make that up. 3. Hasn't shown an ability to make it up at any point so far (at least in the horserace #s). — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@HotlineJosh @databyler I'm working on this... but I prefer net favs and net approvals. Just the way I always do it. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
A load of swing state polling in key states released in last 24 hours... Biden up in all of em... *Only states with at least 2 polls listed. https://t.co/rjYz6VCDuS https://t.co/4HSwZ7cJzi — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I've seen four polls from PA in last 24 hours: Biden +6 (Ipsos), +6 (Susquehanna), +7 (PPP), +8 (Fox News). Three from MI: Biden +7 (PPP), +8 (Ipsos), +8 (Fox News)... Take em or leave em, but they are there. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
RT @tbonier: @Nate_Cohn @RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix We've run all of these numbers, feel free to use our public facing si… — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@Nate_Cohn I welcome in more information and view this as preliminary, not definitive... FWIW, it does seem as you shrink down the battleground, Trump seems to do better... but the sample size (especially with national data) shrinks too, so it's harder to pick out. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@Nate_Cohn It's a good question... On the median yes from my calculations. At least in terms of senior population. Enough to cause a dramatic shift? Probably not. But it could also some swing states are in Covid hotspots. As for the 15... I have timeline & a large enough sample... BUT (!) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This comes as the polling has shown that the age breakdowns in polls seem to be shifting with Biden doing much better among seniors... If those polls are right, it would make sense that there would be some shifting in state data relative to national. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
We can create battleground crosstabs by compiling national poll data. I did that. It's an imperfect metric, but it can be a signal. In 15 closest states from 2016, Biden had been doing ~5 pts worse in battlegrounds (pre-Covid) than nationally. Since? 2 pts better. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Yes, we saw those Fox polls in MI/PA, where Biden did better than his long term averages in either state... and it's backed up by other state polls over the same period... but it's more than that... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I think there is some preliminary evidence that Trump's advantage in the battlegrounds compared to nationally has been slipping over the past month https://t.co/rjYz6Vl26i — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@cfthepodcast @stevesingiser @EricKleefeld @StuPolitics All of this... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Twitter: Where the heck is Biden? Why isn't he doing more?... Polls today from FL, MI, and PA have Biden up 4, 8, and 8. All larger leads than his longer term average in each state. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Joseph Biden looking pretty good in those Fox News polls. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
We don't have enough state data level to know for sure (I'll have something soon suggesting maybe something is afoot, though not definitive)... but worthy to keep an eye out on... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
That V shape is alive and well folks... Biden doing slightly worse with those under 35 and considerably better among those over 65... May be temporary. May not make a difference. But looks fairly recent and makes me wonder if things may shift in state polls. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I too have struggled with this... I'm not sure there's a great answer... Great Lake battleground states? — PolitiTweet.org
Kyle Kondik @kkondik
@hodgesmr I do. Mostly because "Midwest" doesn't include Pennsylvania, and it's helpful from a political standpoin… https://t.co/BU5m9pTLho
