(((Harry Enten)))

@ForecasterEnten ↗

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Last Checked May 21, 2020

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Thu Apr 23 15:01:12 +0000 2020

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

This comes as the polling has shown that the age breakdowns in polls seem to be shifting with Biden doing much better among seniors... If those polls are right, it would make sense that there would be some shifting in state data relative to national. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 23, 2020

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

We can create battleground crosstabs by compiling national poll data. I did that. It's an imperfect metric, but it can be a signal. In 15 closest states from 2016, Biden had been doing ~5 pts worse in battlegrounds (pre-Covid) than nationally. Since? 2 pts better. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 23, 2020

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@Nate_Cohn It's a good question... On the median yes from my calculations. At least in terms of senior population. Enough to cause a dramatic shift? Probably not. But it could also some swing states are in Covid hotspots. As for the 15... I have timeline & a large enough sample... BUT (!) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 23, 2020