Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 12, 2022

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Sat Oct 17 20:01:55 +0000 2020

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Look, w/ possible exceptions @Nate_Cohn identifies like Ralston/NV, we're just not going to know anything until we see *actual vote totals* after poll closing. Even then, early votes alone won't tell us much in most places, and will surely lead wishful thinkers astray. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Huge difference between drawing inferences from early voting *actual results* vs. pre-election early turnout data. And even in the case of early results in Sumter/Pinellas etc., we'd only be able to draw meaningful conclusions under very specific conditions after 7pm on 11/3. — PolitiTweet.org

@Redistrict *genuinely asking* Then how do we deal with your prediction re: The Villages early voting data?

Posted Oct. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The exceptions to the last sentence are the places where early votes make up an extraordinarily high % of the total expected vote (possibly Sumter, FL etc.). And even then, you have to account for the fact the small share of E-Day votes is likely to be hugely pro-Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 17, 2020 Hibernated