Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2022

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Fri Oct 14 15:32:40 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins i think the estimate should be sufficiently precise that readers/public don't interpret it differently than it actually is. the confidence interval is irrelevant in that formulation, imo, even if it ought to be relevant — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 14, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins the good case, imo, is that people look at 47.23-48.23 and think it's as precise as like the latest numbers from the s&p 500. that's a serious case, to me. idk whether it outweighs damage from imprecise findings and downstream misinterpretation, but it's a good case — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 14, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins as long as people interpret D+1 and "tie" differently, or a "no change" v "D+2 shift" differently, the loss of precision is relevant — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 14, 2022