Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 31, 2022

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Mon Sep 12 17:02:11 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I do want to reiterate what I said in the article -- IDK if the polls will be as bad as they were in '20, or more like '18, or even better. But if Dems show strength in these areas, I'd guess that this geographic pattern of error will probably be back to one extent or another — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 12, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is an old ppt slide from May 2020, showing the apparent shift in early '20 polling v. the poll bias in '16. The warning signs were there from the start (inspiring the 'if polls are wrong' table). Also notice the same pattern in '18, tho the polls weren't biased on *average* https://t.co/zMyqGTaSVD — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 12, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In principle, I'm totally agnostic about whether 2018 or 2020 ought to be the best comparison for 2022. The warning sign, though, is that current Democratic overperformance is fairly well-correlated with 2020 error (just as '20 was with '16) https://t.co/UTBFs41eLl — PolitiTweet.org

This is an interesting piece, but 2020 was a presidential year, and 2022 is a midterm. I wonder if the more useful… https://t.co/N1maUtMdam

Posted Sept. 12, 2022