Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 30, 2022

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Mon Sep 12 16:59:57 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is an old ppt slide from May 2020, showing the apparent shift in early '20 polling v. the poll bias in '16. The warning signs were there from the start (inspiring the 'if polls are wrong' table). Also notice the same pattern in '18, tho the polls weren't biased on *average* https://t.co/zMyqGTaSVD — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 12, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@simon_bazelon come on, surely you 'understand the line.' there was ~ no national bias in '18 and that's an incredibly significant difference. if there's no national bias rn, democrats really are in a competitive fight for the house and favored in the senate — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 12, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I do want to reiterate what I said in the article -- IDK if the polls will be as bad as they were in '20, or more like '18, or even better. But if Dems show strength in these areas, I'd guess that this geographic pattern of error will probably be back to one extent or another — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 12, 2022