Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 24, 2022

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Tue Dec 28 19:56:59 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cwarshaw and based on the chart, i don't think it's obvious that incumbency is the core problem. if it was, the disparity between presidential vote and House estimate wouldn't be linear and grow as x approaches 0,1 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 28, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cwarshaw i'm using the numbers on the main table for 'predicted vote share.' i think the issue would probably be helped a bit with incumbency, but it's a pretty serious problem if it doesn't model open seats well (esp if that's default)? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 28, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cwarshaw the estimates for GOP seats might be, for ex, 3 pts above the line at all values of x; the estimates for Dem seats might be 3 pts below the line for all values of x. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 28, 2021