Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cwarshaw i'm using the numbers on the main table for 'predicted vote share.' i think you're right that the issue might have to do with how you've specified incumbency in the model, but it's a pretty serious problem if it doesn't model open seats well (esp if that's default)? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cwarshaw and based on the chart, i don't think it's obvious that incumbency is the core problem. if it was, the disparity between presidential vote and House estimate wouldn't be linear and grow as x approaches 0,1 — PolitiTweet.org