Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2021

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Sat Oct 30 16:55:26 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This really shouldn't be too surprising, given all the data for assessing early/absentee voters. But there's more going on than simply being better at the method for which we have more data. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 30, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I got curious and looked back over all five states where I did pre-election estimates for vote by method (FL, GA, NC, PA, GA runoff). Basically, the estimates for the advanced vote--calculated in the same way as this--were really good. Estimates for election day? Pretty messy — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 30, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Think about it like this: if advance voting doesn't really reduce overall uncertainty about the composition of the electorate, but locks in much of the electorate, then basically all of the uncertainty is channelled into the election day vote — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 30, 2021