Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 10, 2021

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Sat Oct 30 16:55:25 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I got curious and looked back over all five states where I did pre-election estimates for vote by method (FL, GA, NC, PA, GA runoff). Basically, the estimates for the advanced vote--calculated in the same way as this--were really good. Estimates for election day? Pretty messy — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 30, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Depending on the apparent level of Election Day turnout, it should be pretty straight forward to infer Youngkin's target vote share among Election Day voters--and then evaluate whether he's hitting it. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 30, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This really shouldn't be too surprising, given all the data for assessing early/absentee voters. But there's more going on than simply being better at the method for which we have more data. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 30, 2021