Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 5, 2021

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Fri Oct 29 13:03:51 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The LV/RV question is a separate one. It's a big LV/RV gap. It's not what I'd expect. It's not matched by other polls. But this *is* a low turnout, non-federal election at a time when the Dem president approval is -10. It's not exactly insane to imagine. It's happened before https://t.co/vxxkuljKix — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 29, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I should note, btw, that the RV number is the important one for past vote. We already know this is a very GOP electorate from the LV-RV gap. What we don't know--and what we want to know--is whether the underlying sample is also biased. That's what past vote *could* help inform — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 29, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, none of this means the Fox poll is accurate! It's an outlier at the moment. It has a big LV/RV gap, which is always a fraught problem. So it could be wrong. But you only had to look at the toplines to know that. The tabs/past vote aren't adding anything — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 29, 2021