Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 5, 2021

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Fri Oct 29 12:59:35 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Once you concede that past vote is unstable and potentially biased, it's kind of hard to make much of a 4 pt gap between Biden+10 and Biden+6 Is it possible that Biden supporters are disappointed right now and saying they voted for someone else? You don't know that's *not* true — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 29, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In our Times/Siena polls, for instance, we almost always found Trump leading Clinton by more than he actually won by. Our polls would have been even *more* biased toward Biden if we had weighted on it. (many on twitter, ofc, attempted to unskew our polls on that basis. oops) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 29, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I should note, btw, that the RV number is the important one for past vote. We already know this is a very GOP electorate from the LV-RV gap. What we don't know--and what we want to know--is whether the underlying sample is also biased. That's what past vote *could* help inform — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 29, 2021