Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 5, 2021

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Fri Oct 29 12:53:32 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One well known bias is a winners bias: people tend to be less likely to report voting for the loser. If that's true today, then these polls might actually be biased against Biden! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 29, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Past vote is not necessarily a stable characteristic, like race or education or party registration. It's subject to a variety of shifting biases, which create serious challenges for weighting off of it. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 29, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Post-16, it did not seem like there was much winners bias toward Trump. Many pollsters, especially with poor data collection, started using it for weighting. It's a great crutch: you can weight a poll of NYC to be plausibly accurate for the US if you weight it by US past vote — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 29, 2021