Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked July 21, 2021

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Wed Jul 21 15:48:05 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, as I said, I'm fundamentally agonistic on these sort of macro v. micro debates in election forecasting, but I do think it's worth noting that Democrats are largely avoiding the cautionary tales that you'd tell in the micro-level story of recent midterm defeats. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 21, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And on the other hand, when you look at the (admittedly relatively few) cases without a big health care push or a bad economy, you see fewer signs of a big drop-off between now and the midterm — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 21, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Whether that's enough for Democrats, given the macro-pattern and their very limited room for error, is a very different question. But I'm not inclined to assume the Democrats are on track to lose the national vote by 4 points, either (i'm not sure that they won't, either!) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 21, 2021