Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked July 21, 2021

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Wed Jul 21 15:45:08 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And on the other hand, when you look at the (admittedly relatively few) cases without a big health care push or a bad economy, you see fewer signs of a big drop-off between now and the midterm — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 21, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Most (though not all, to be fair: 2014 for ex) of the cases where the president's party loses a lot of ground between now and the midterm feature some pretty poor circumstances, like an ambitious and unpopular legislative agenda, or a mediocre economy/war (1966, 1982, 1994, 2010) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 21, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, as I said, I'm fundamentally agonistic on these sort of macro v. micro debates in election forecasting, but I do think it's worth noting that Democrats are largely avoiding the cautionary tales that you'd tell in the micro-level story of recent midterm defeats. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 21, 2021