Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated No

Last Checked July 21, 2021

Created

Wed Jul 21 15:42:47 +0000 2021

Likes

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My general disposition toward this important question is a sort of fatalistic agnosticism. But I think it is worth trying both lenses on and see how things look from time to time. In this case, I think things look different and the micro-analysis seems fairly credible. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 21, 2021

Preceded By

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The short answer is probably "both." But one of the great challenges of electoral analysis is balancing micro and macro theory. It's particularly challenging due to the limits of the data. There aren't many elections. You can't easily control for many things you'd like to — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 21, 2021

Followed By

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Most (though not all, to be fair: 2014 for ex) of the cases where the president's party loses a lot of ground between now and the midterm feature some pretty poor circumstances, like an ambitious and unpopular legislative agenda, or a mediocre economy/war (1966, 1982, 1994, 2010) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 21, 2021