Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked July 21, 2021

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Wed Jul 21 15:42:34 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The short answer is probably "both." But one of the great challenges of electoral analysis is balancing micro and macro theory. It's particularly challenging due to the limits of the data. There aren't many elections. You can't easily control for many things you'd like to — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 21, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That observation is absolutely right. But it is worth asking ourselves a simple question about that tendency: why is it true? To what extent is it a function of particular circumstances, like mediocre economies or unpopular legislative agendas, versus something more fundamental? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 21, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My general disposition toward this important question is a sort of fatalistic agnosticism. But I think it is worth trying both lenses on and see how things look from time to time. In this case, I think things look different and the micro-analysis seems fairly credible. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 21, 2021