Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked April 2, 2021

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Thu Mar 25 15:17:11 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

FiveThirtyEight is more or less acknowledging that this is happening, indirectly. Whatever qualitative advantage live phone samples still enjoy is no longer making up for their lighter weighting schemes, at least in an electoral context — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Whether a pollster is prone to systemic bias really boils down to two things: --does the poll make heavy bias-variance trade offs? lvie very rarely; ivr/online all the time --is the underlying sample unbiased? this was live's case a few years ago; now it's at least in question — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But this has some long term consequences for the FiveThirtyEight scheme as a whole, since a world where live phones can be systematically biased is one where FiveThirtyEight can't reduce bias by calibrating its House Effects to a particular kind of survey — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021