Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked April 2, 2021

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Thu Mar 25 15:15:05 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Whether a pollster is prone to systemic bias really boils down to two things: --does the poll make heavy bias-variance trade offs? lvie very rarely; ivr/online all the time --is the underlying sample unbiased? this was live's case a few years ago; now it's at least in question — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That's great for the world of 2006, when you could assume the industry-wide sample/choices are more-or-less nonbiased. Today, you'd rather have a rating based on whether a firm is prone to systemic bias--though it's basically impossible to construct with the available data — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

FiveThirtyEight is more or less acknowledging that this is happening, indirectly. Whatever qualitative advantage live phone samples still enjoy is no longer making up for their lighter weighting schemes, at least in an electoral context — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021