Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked April 2, 2021

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Thu Mar 25 14:56:08 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Take party ID. Let's say you get back that's D+10 and Clinton+6. You can weight it to D+5 and Clinton+2 probably reduce error. But if I always weight to D+5/Clinton+2, and the electorate is D+2/Trump+1, then *on average* my polls are biased by Dems to 3 points — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What's a bias-variance trade off? Well, often times you can make a choice between reducing error at the expense of inducing possible bias. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Virtually every non-phone pollster is making choices like this. It does keep their error down and it can also reduce bias. But it also basically makes it inevitable that every election includes some systemic bias, especially since these choices are similar — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021