Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked April 2, 2021

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Thu Mar 25 14:55:33 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What's a bias-variance trade off? Well, often times you can make a choice between reducing error at the expense of inducing possible bias. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are fundamental, underlying reasons why the risk of bias is increasing, while error stays low. The quality of the survey data is decreasing, as response rates decline and polls go online. Pollsters compensate by weighting, forcing industry-wide bias-variance tradeoffs — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Take party ID. Let's say you get back that's D+10 and Clinton+6. You can weight it to D+5 and Clinton+2 probably reduce error. But if I always weight to D+5/Clinton+2, and the electorate is D+2/Trump+1, then *on average* my polls are biased by Dems to 3 points — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021