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Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked May 23, 2022

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Wed Jan 06 01:19:14 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's a case for taking the 'over' on the needle. It builds in tabulation errors, which we don't expect but definitely happen (see NC)! And we haven't increased our confidence to reflect that we just had this election. Won't be any Miami-Dades tonight https://t.co/UWbpmR4Vn0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Prediction markets being quite a big more aggressive than the Needle. I trust the Needle more, of course. But note… https://t.co/phv87Sq7op

Posted Jan. 6, 2021 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In particular, there's basically no ATL area Election Day vote. If they're going to mount a comeback, doing better than expected there will probably be pretty important https://t.co/UQfyS8yaS5 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 6, 2021 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One danger for the Republicans: yes, they can hope to do better by *vote share* in the remaining Atlanta area vote... but they can't hope for it to be smaller than modeled in DeKalb/Fulton. We actually know the turnout in DeKalb was higher than the model currently estimates — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 6, 2021 Hibernated