Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 12, 2022

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Wed Dec 02 18:36:21 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We have three kinds of data: --our survey responses (we call off the file, so we can compare voter file v. poll race) --the commercial modeling by L2, our voter file vendor --our own modeling, mainly based on the black share of an unknown voters' precinct https://t.co/qfTpmOnZto — PolitiTweet.org

@Nate_Cohn What's the data at your disposal?

Posted Dec. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Ultimately, dwelling on this very legitimate question winds up obscuring from the fact that the conclusions aren't contested. It let's you say you think the analysis is 'wrong,' without being willing to say that the black share of the electorate didn't drop — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@zachacrowell @jon_m_rob @blfraga i think the difference on ours is < .5, so i'm not sure there's enough precision to know if there's a difference here. the turnout rate by race does seem consistent with a decline in black share with a more precise account, tho idk their denoms — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 2, 2020 Hibernated