Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Wed Nov 18 13:18:38 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you hold the Times/Siena results by race constant, then you'd get these results under different electorates (by race) 2016: Biden 61.2 2020: Biden 61.8 So that's a .6 pt shift due to simply due to topline changes in the racial composition of the electorate — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you take those figures along with the actual racial turnout data we just mentioned, then you'd estimate that Biden won 61.8% of the major party vote in these counties. That's pretty close to his actual 60.7% share, so I think this is more than good enough — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If so, then about 15% of Biden's gains could be attributed to topline changes in the racial composition of the electorate (as Biden gained about 3.9 pts of major party vote share, of which .6 pts could be attributed to the decline in the white share of the electorate) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated