Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Wed Nov 18 13:15:42 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you take those figures along with the actual racial turnout data we just mentioned, then you'd estimate that Biden won 61.8% of the major party vote in these counties. That's pretty close to his actual 60.7% share, so I think this is more than good enough — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If we take the two Times/Siena polls together, here's how voters broke by voter file racial group (here Biden share of major party vote, to fix undecideds): White 43 Black 92 Hispanic 60 Asian 61 Unknown 61 Other 82 Many are pretty small samples! But I think it's reasonable — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you hold the Times/Siena results by race constant, then you'd get these results under different electorates (by race) 2016: Biden 61.2 2020: Biden 61.8 So that's a .6 pt shift due to simply due to topline changes in the racial composition of the electorate — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated