Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Tue Nov 10 19:18:50 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I should note that the county-level data is not perfect for evaluating black turnout, especially since many majority black counties in the so-called 'black belt' are in population decline. But those counties stand out for relatively small turnout increases, as well — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is part of what seems to me to be a broader pattern, at least at the county-level: black turnout did not increase to the same extent as non-black turnout. It was up! But the black share of the electorate probably fell, as non-black turnout increased more — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Nationwide, a simple regression on the county-level data suggests a 8 percent increase in black turnout, v. 19 for non-black turnout. This is a very rough way of looking at things--importantly, doesn't control for population growth, and has ecological inference issues — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 10, 2020 Hibernated