Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Tue Nov 10 17:11:16 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To my mind, the easiest way to see it: the crosstabs on white voters nationwide, particularly whites without a degree In 2016, the polls *did* show Trump doing way better among those voters. In 2020, they did not. And they were dead wrong. Same story with seniors. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are really two halves of polling: the quality of the sample you get, and the adjustments you take to improve the representativeness of your sample. Since 2016, pollsters got better at the adjustments, but the underlying sample got worse — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So what happened? How did the samples get that much worse over the last four years, especially among white voters without a degree and seniors? At this stage, it's really just speculation. We'll know more later--it's too early for an autopsy. But here's some early speculation — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 10, 2020 Hibernated