Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Tue Nov 10 17:10:36 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are really two halves of polling: the quality of the sample you get, and the adjustments you take to improve the representativeness of your sample. Since 2016, pollsters got better at the adjustments, but the underlying sample got worse — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Before we go into what went wrong, let's just call a spade a spade here: this was a bad polling error. It's comparable to 2016 in size, but pollsters don't have the excuses they did last time. This year's polls would have been *way* worse than 2016 with a 2016 methodology — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To my mind, the easiest way to see it: the crosstabs on white voters nationwide, particularly whites without a degree In 2016, the polls *did* show Trump doing way better among those voters. In 2020, they did not. And they were dead wrong. Same story with seniors. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 10, 2020 Hibernated