Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To take a more recent example, *we* knew that Obama had cataclysmic downside risk in WV in '08 that was negatively correlated with the country. The model didn't know it was any likelier or less likely than usual. But that possibility still has to remain — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Or if you prefer: if the model can't tell that WV going wild in '08 is any more likely than MS right now, then the model will probably need to allow both possibilities and underestimate the probability of the former and overestimate the latter — PolitiTweet.org