Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Thu Oct 22 17:19:28 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Pct. undecided by intention to vote, taking all NYT/Siena 2020 polling together since September: Almost certain to vote 5.6 Very likely 7 Somewhat likely 21.8 Not too likely 14 Not at all likely 13 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One factor is that we have a probablistic LV screen. So if you tell us that you're somewhat likely to vote, you still have a chance to vote--while another poll cuts you out entirely. In our polling, these folks are way likelier to be undecided. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So another survey would be cutting out those 21/14/13 groups out entirely, while we do still assign them some probability to vote, increasing the undecided share of the sample — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated