Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Sat Sep 12 11:29:21 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In general, the churn is focused on the Dem side. Young, nonwhite voters drop out at disproportionate rates, pbly just due to avg turnout and mobility, but also *join* the electorate at disproportionate rates. That's true even when young/nonwhite turnout go up. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And already in mail voting requests, usually a high turnout group of voters, there are some states where ~15% of the requests are from 2016 nonvoters. If your assumption is that the 2020 electorate = everyone from 2016 plus a few, that's just not the way elections work — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We don't weigh on it for two main of reasons: --We don't know what proportion of the current registered voters are Clinton/Trump. People die. Move. etc. --We don't trust people to recall this accurately and, more importantly, in an unbiased way https://t.co/ysRJczOxYG — PolitiTweet.org

@Nate_Cohn Seems the sample has a pro Trump bias, no? He didn't beat Clinton by these margins in any of these state… https://t.co/Yl86D0dNs5

Posted Sept. 12, 2020 Hibernated