Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Thu Sep 10 11:36:26 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

How do you get enough Trump vote in '16, but too much Trump-Biden vote in 20? It would need to be an awfully targeted kind of bias, though I could make up a story where committed Trump voters become disillusioned with polling and drop out while weaker Trump support remains. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It is pretty tough, IMO, to come up with an explanation for how a panel like the Pew ATP or USC (weighting issues aside) would be pretty good in '16, retain many of the same panelists, and be badly biased in '20. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This seems fairly testable by the folks at Pew or USC, though even then panel attrition is a real and expected thing and I'm not sure whether we could read something more generalizable into anything they saw. It would still be an interesting data point imo — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 10, 2020 Hibernated