Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Thu Aug 27 13:55:02 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @On_Politike don't take this the wrong way, but it is 100% irrelevant to me that a model fit after the fact would have been fine. it is a grave mistake to believe you're immune to the kinds of errors that forecasters made in the past — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris in all seriousness, getting it right after the fact just doesn't count. fivethirtyeight, without the benefit of hindsight, would have been off by *13* in OH at this point. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @On_Politike (and that 538 number wasn't nowcast, that was their public forecast at the time. i'm sure it did just fine on the training set) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated