Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris You can also think of this in terms of the demographic shocks. *You* know in '16 there's a risk of a Trump surge among white no col voters, but maybe not other kinds. How does the model account for that risk but *not* the ones you *don't* find plausible, like FL Hispanic surge? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris i mean, you just saw in the last election that many states--9 or 10--swing 10 points from '16/where you'd forecast them right around now. given the small n, you really don't know just how far that is down the tail. — PolitiTweet.org