Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris a robust forecast at N=17 means making up a bunch of stuff, and it's a lot of work to inevitably say 'candidate who leads the polls will probably but not necessarily win,' and then be yelled at if the polls are wrong, as they will be from time to time. i don't see the fun — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris there are times where i do it: i had a house model in '18. it's really hard to think about house control without one, given how many seats there are, the sparse polling, etc. for a presidential race? not a ton of value add over a polling average and common sense, imo — PolitiTweet.org