Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Wed Aug 12 18:51:49 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris fair enough, but we're just not anywhere near the same page on how to think about this stuff if there's any utterance of the word 'underfitting' over the last... 5 data points ? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris instead, i see concern about underfitting? what? like, a good model probably should be underfit at N=17! why would you assume you've seen anything near the full range of possibilities — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris a robust forecast at N=17 means making up a bunch of stuff, and it's a lot of work to inevitably say 'candidate who leads the polls will probably but not necessarily win,' and then be yelled at if the polls are wrong, as they will be from time to time. i don't see the fun — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated