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Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Mon Aug 10 18:29:49 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As a result, I don't really think that this generally reasonable point by Nate here holds up exactly. The incentive structure for individual pollsters is different than for the polling aggregator. Education weighting threatens the aggregator far more. https://t.co/NVJkBCMrH7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But there are some important constraints here. Polls mostly have strong incentives to be accurate. And they are mos… https://t.co/k0CWjSJJaB

Posted Aug. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The challenge for education is that the effect on *error* is potentially quite small (oh I was only off by 3 points, in the MoE, I'm fine!), even as the effect on bias is fairly large (oh i took 10 polls and they all leaned Democratic, even if off by 3 on average...) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We can see this with Marist, for example, who notes that they did just in *their* final polls in 2016 without education, or others on this website who have said some version of the same argument. In fact, there are folks whose polls were *worse* with education weighting! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2020 Hibernated