Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Mon Aug 10 18:28:07 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The challenge for education is that the effect on *error* is potentially quite small (oh I was only off by 3 points, in the MoE, I'm fine!), even as the effect on bias is fairly large (oh i took 10 polls and they all leaned Democratic, even if off by 3 on average...) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

These choices sometimes put pollsters at odds with poll aggregators. A poll aggregator prefers an unbiased poll, even if it's noisy. A pollster wants to reduce error, and might make choices that induce bias to poll it off--weighting by party identification, to take an easy one — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As a result, I don't really think that this generally reasonable point by Nate here holds up exactly. The incentive structure for individual pollsters is different than for the polling aggregator. Education weighting threatens the aggregator far more. https://t.co/NVJkBCMrH7 — PolitiTweet.org

But there are some important constraints here. Polls mostly have strong incentives to be accurate. And they are mos… https://t.co/k0CWjSJJaB

Posted Aug. 10, 2020 Hibernated