Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Mon Aug 10 18:13:48 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Leaving aside this specific example aside, there is an interesting conversation to be had here about why polling averages work nowadays, and what that means for how you want to think about constructing a polling average. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Ultimately, the range of options under-consideration by pollsters today aren't centered on the population mean--no education weights means a long tail toward a Silicon Valley electorate. That's why weighting is necessary and why it would risk *bias* in the average. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Back in the early days of polling averages, you could argue that polling averages worked because the polls were fundamentally unbiased samples, controlling for house effects. Aggregating polls was like getting one really big and good poll, with a steadily shrinking MoE. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2020 Hibernated