Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Fri Aug 07 20:52:30 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Let's take an extreme example to illustrate: suppose a 50-50 race with *100%* turnout, and suppose 100% of Party A votes early, while no one in party B votes early. That poll will be biased toward party A, unless it assigned 100% turnout to all of party B (which wouldn't happen) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Random thought: a lopsided Democratic edge in early voting may be a bit of an underrated challenge for pollsters. It's a bit dangerous to have one party lock in its votes, while the other party's voters don't get that kind of boost in their turnout probability — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

IRL, the issue isn't underestimating Republican turnout. The real issue is that the Dems who don't vote early are less likely to vote than Republicans who don't, but they'll probably all tell you'll they'll vote. Alternately, you have too many Dem early voters — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 7, 2020 Hibernated