Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Fri Aug 07 13:55:31 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

At the same time, none of this means that there *hasn't* been tightening. If we go back to this chart, there's still tightening across all mode. https://t.co/wKMqRJIOsh — PolitiTweet.org

Here, for instance, is what the poll averages look like if you break the polls down by method. Black = all; blue =… https://t.co/00znVorw9O

Posted Aug. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now I'm not saying that the House Effects *should* be calibrated at A+ = true and adjust all others to it. My main point is that if there were as many Monmouth polls as Morning Consult or something, you'd have a different House Effect adjustment too — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But the online polls show *very* little movement, and there are really no live interview polls at all--that big drop is mainly due to one poll, and may or may not hold up with more data. The real movement here is on the IVR side, both in terms of relative weight and trendline — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 7, 2020 Hibernated