Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Fri Aug 07 13:50:57 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here, for instance, are House Effects by 538 pollster rating (where 0 is their "A+" and 1 is an "D-") As you can see, there's a decent relationship between pollster quality and a Biden House Effect. The small number of A+ polls means they can't anchor the adjustment. https://t.co/5Cu9D19DLu — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As a result, it's not like the House Effect drag Rasmussen all the way back to the live polls. Instead, it drags Rasmussen back toward the average, which is something more like a Morning Consult and YouGov. Similarly, a Monmouth poll would be adjusted back to the right. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now I'm not saying that the House Effects *should* be calibrated at A+ = true and adjust all others to it. My main point is that if there were as many Monmouth polls as Morning Consult or something, you'd have a different House Effect adjustment too — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 7, 2020 Hibernated