Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked April 1, 2021

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Tue Jul 28 17:27:46 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @NateSilver538 if by 'mrp' you mean a model with regularization, deeply interacted standard census demographics, and some standard political/demographic continuous predictors, then i am certain it would not--even with tens of thousands of RDD interviews — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @NateSilver538 (or a day's worth of work to create an overfitted model that will break in the next election) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @NateSilver538 you can be fairly competitive with the state polls if you go beyond this, and either have far stronger covariates or a way incorporate state polling data (in a manner like other nate proposes) or pass along the state-by-state biases in MRP from prior elections — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated