Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked April 2, 2021

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Fri Jul 24 11:48:23 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Nationwide, this yields the following result: Biden+10, 54-44 Whites 46-52 ...col+ 59-39 ...no col 37-61 Black 90-9 Hispanic 63-35 plausible enough for illustrative purposes — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's not easy to imagine the consequences of this kind of demographic shift, but they are potentially very significant. For illustrative purposes, consider a simple simulation: apply the shifts in national polls to our post '16 estimates of the result by group — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

By state, these estimates yield results that look a lot like recent polls (though keep in mind that, unlike this simulation, national shifts would undoubtedly manifest in non-uniform and unpredictable ways by state): MI Biden+10 WI +10 PA +9 FL +6 NC +6 AZ +4 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 24, 2020 Hibernated