Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked March 8, 2021

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Sun Jul 19 15:29:55 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If I look at every poll reporting both, the gap gets even narrower--but it does seem to be there. That's consistent with a pretty long history of a GOP edge among LVs with respect to RVs, and I don't think it should be a surprise. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

3) Although 5 is at the higher end of the spectrum, I do think the balance of evidence continues to suggest that there is a GOP-tilt LV/RV gap, at least nationally. NYT/Siena national was Biden+11 (51-40) w 'almost certain' to vote (not our LV approach btw), so that's a 3 pt gap — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

4) One interesting thing to mull: could a bigger Biden lead involve a bigger RV/LV gap, as Biden expands his support into Republican-tilting voters who don't usually vote for Democrats and wouldn't be terribly excited to vote for one? Just a thought. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated