Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Sun Jul 19 15:28:19 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

3) Although 5 is at the higher end of the spectrum, I do think the balance of evidence continues to suggest that there is a GOP-tilt LV/RV gap, at least nationally. NYT/Siena national was Biden+11 (51-40) w 'almost certain' to vote (not our LV approach btw), so that's a 3 pt gap — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

2) That said, this is the second consecutive ABC/Post poll to show a 5 point LV/RV gap. The May poll was 10 with RVs and 5 with LVs. So I'd be somewhat less inclined to dismiss it as noise; perhaps there's a pattern here, at least for this pollster — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If I look at every poll reporting both, the gap gets even narrower--but it does seem to be there. That's consistent with a pretty long history of a GOP edge among LVs with respect to RVs, and I don't think it should be a surprise. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated