Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked March 8, 2021

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Sat Jul 18 20:47:58 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @NateSilver538 @DanRosenheck @collprof @Michael_Cobb68 yes, all elections have equal weight, but less polarized elections will have less weight in determining variance for 2020, just as, to take an example, 'black' respondents do not effect the mean for 'white' if you control for race in a linear model, despite equal weight — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @NateSilver538 @DanRosenheck @collprof @Michael_Cobb68 i don't think the dataset is necessarily a core area of contestation, though i do think the question of how post-war fundamentals fare pre-war is an important one — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @NateSilver538 @DanRosenheck @collprof @Michael_Cobb68 i think it's defensible to add a polarization term--it could have improved an '18 house model, for instance--tho it comes with risks. if your version yields *99%* on a 9 point lead in july--based on variance in, what, 5 polarized elections--then you may be going too far — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 18, 2020 Hibernated