Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 9, 2021

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Wed Jun 24 10:14:43 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We'll talk more about turnout later, but 2016 voters (even better for Trump than 2016 turnout, as that would exclude, say, everyone 18-22 or everyone who voted in the Dem primary that didn't vote in '16) is Biden+10 https://t.co/501osgQ2j5 — PolitiTweet.org

@Nate_Cohn Have you tried weighing by 2016 turnout?

Posted June 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Just out of academic curiosity, I spent some time yesterday seeing whether there were really any serious choices in weighting or design that might have led to even a modestly better picture for the president, and I've got nothing — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We could go deep on the numbers here, but bottom line is that the votes just weren't there for Trump. That could change, but you can't weight or LV screen your way out of being barely ahead among white voters and down 20 with independents or whatever — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 24, 2020 Hibernated